{ "id": "coffee-price-history", "url": "https://coffearium.org/entries/coffee-price-history/", "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "title": "Coffee price history", "summary": "How the price of green arabica has moved since 1970 – frosts, the quota years, the crises and the record highs – in monthly data, nominal and adjusted for inflation, with the causes the sources name.", "domain": "trade", "kind": "Concept", "stage": "trade", "topics": [ "history" ], "topicSections": {}, "lang": "en", "status": "verified", "reviewer": "Coffearium verification pass", "lastVerified": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z", "updated": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z", "added": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z", "brief": [ "Long-run arabica prices are monthly averages of the ICO indicator for other mild arabicas, published by the World Bank and the IMF in nominal US dollars.1,3", "In nominal terms the monthly high is 409.68 US cents per lb (November 2025, IMF series); the ICO composite set its monthly record in February 2025 (ICO tables to February 2026).1,14", "Adjusted for US consumer prices, the April 1977 peak after Brazil’s 1975 frost was about four times the 2025 high (our calculation).1,2,4,6", "Arabica fell about 45% from June to October 1989, after the export quotas of the International Coffee Agreement ended in July 1989.2,7,8", "In August 2002 arabica reached its lowest real price since 1970 in these series; a World Bank study called the crisis prices 100-year lows in real terms.1,4,10" ], "quickFacts": [ { "label": "Nominal monthly high", "value": "409.68 US cents per lb, November 2025 (IMF, other mild arabica)" }, { "label": "ICO composite record month", "value": "February 2025, 354.32 US cents per lb (nominal; no higher month in ICO tables to February 2026)" }, { "label": "Real high since 1970", "value": "April 1977, ≈1,783 US cents per lb in September 2026 dollars (our calculation)" }, { "label": "Real low since 1970", "value": "August 2002, ≈101 US cents per lb in September 2026 dollars (our calculation)" }, { "label": "Latest month in the charts", "value": "September 2026, 330.12 US cents per lb (IMF, other mild arabica)" } ], "aka": [ "History of coffee prices", "Coffee price chart", "Long-run coffee prices" ], "linkTerms": [ "real coffee price", "coffee crisis", "coffee price crisis", "1975 frost", "1994 frost" ], "related": [ "how-a-coffee-price-is-made", "coffee-futures", "differentials", "the-international-coffee-agreements", "crop-year-and-coffee-year", "coffee-production-by-country", "who-earns-what", "harvest-calendars", "coffee-yields" ], "contested": [ "Month of the 2025 high: the ICO composite indicator reached its highest monthly average on record in February 2025, and the ICO table for March 2025 to February 2026 shows no higher month14,15; for other mild arabicas both the IMF series (409.68 cents, 0.16 above February 2025) and the ICO Other Milds group indicator (410.31 cents, against 409.48 in February 2025) are highest in November 2025.1,14,15 The composite blends arabica and robusta groups, so it can peak in a different month." ], "corrections": [ { "date": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z", "change": "The 1986 spike peaked in March 1986 (239.5 US cents per lb), not January (237.7); figure point 3, text and table moved to March, and the formal suspension of quotas in February 1986 added from the ICO history.", "reason": "World Bank Pink Sheet (2016 vintage): March 1986 5.28 USD per kg against January 5.24." }, { "date": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z", "change": "The ICO Other Milds group indicator also peaks in November 2025 (410.31 cents); the contested note and the method text no longer imply that IMF and ICO other-milds series always agree (July 2025: 316.73 against 325.50).", "reason": "ICO Coffee Market Report February 2026, Table 1." }, { "date": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z", "change": "The ICO's real-price averages of 185, 125 and 130 cents are now identified as an analysis of Santos 4 coffee in 1990 terms, not the series charted here.", "reason": "Wording of the ICO 50-year history." } ], "sources": [ { "id": "s1", "title": "Global price of Coffee, Other Mild Arabica (PCOFFOTMUSDM)", "authors": "International Monetary Fund, Primary Commodity Prices", "year": 2026, "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), last updated 22 October 2026", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOFFOTMUSDM", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "IMF statistics, monthly averages in US cents per lb, January 1992 to September 2026; data table read at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCOFFOTMUSDM. Values are close to the ICO Other Milds group indicator in most months checked for this entry (largest gap found in July 2025, 316.73 against 325.50).", "quote": "Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s2", "title": "World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet): monthly prices in nominal US dollars, 1960 to present", "year": 2016, "publisher": "World Bank, updated 5 July 2016", "url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/386771467756369668-0050022016/render/CMOHistoricalDataMonthly.pdf", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "World Bank statistics; series “Coffee, arabica”, USD per kg. This 2016 vintage is used for 1970–1991; the current spreadsheet could not be accessed.", "quote": "monthly prices in nominal US dollars, 1960 to present", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s3", "title": "World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), October 2026", "year": 2026, "publisher": "World Bank, Prospects Group, 2 October 2026", "url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Pink-Sheet-October-2026.pdf", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "World Bank statistics; annual averages 2023–2025 and the description of the coffee price series.", "quote": "Coffee, Arabica (ICO), International Coffee Organization indicator price, other mild Arabicas,", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s4", "title": "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCNS)", "authors": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "year": 2026, "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), last updated 14 October 2026", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CPIAUCNS", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "Government statistics, index 1982–1984 = 100, not seasonally adjusted; used as the deflator (our calculation). No value is published for October 2025.", "quote": "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s5", "title": "NIST Guide to the SI (Special Publication 811), Appendix B.8: Factors for units listed alphabetically", "publisher": "National Institute of Standards and Technology", "url": "https://www.nist.gov/pml/special-publication-811/nist-guide-si-appendix-b-conversion-factors/nist-guide-si-appendix-b8", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "Pound (avoirdupois) to kilogram, 4.535 924 E−01 (the data file uses 0.45359237, identical at the precision shown).", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s6", "title": "Agro-Industry Profiles: Coffee", "authors": "World Bank, Finance and Agro-Industry Unit", "year": 1985, "publisher": "World Bank", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/311271467993475518/pdf/FAU14.pdf", "tier": "A", "quote": "The high levels of stocks and low real prices characteristic of the 1960s and early 1970s were reversed, however, by a severe frost which damaged the Brazilian crop in 1975.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s7", "title": "The International Coffee Organization 1963–2013: 50 Years Serving the World Coffee Community", "authors": "Dubois, P. (with the ICO Secretariat)", "year": 2013, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization, London", "url": "https://ico.org/documents/history-ico-50-years-e.pdf", "tier": "A/B", "tierNote": "A for the ICO price statistics it reports; B for its account of events.", "quote": "The elimination of quotas in July 1989 was accompanied by several years of prices so low", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s8", "title": "Economic Sustainability – Price, Cost, and Value", "authors": "Perez, J.; Kilian, B.; Pratt, L.; Ardila, J. C.; Lamb, H.; Byers, L.; Sanders, D.", "year": 2017, "publisher": "In: Folmer, B. (ed.), The Craft and Science of Coffee, Academic Press, ch. 6, pp. 133–160", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780128035207/the-craft-and-science-of-coffee", "tier": "B", "tierNote": "Recognised textbook chapter; read in the local full text supplied by the editor. Carries no number alone.", "quote": "From 1962 until 1989 the International Coffee Organization (ICO) used a quota system to regulate supply and demand.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s9", "title": "Responding to the coffee crisis: What can we learn from price dynamics?", "authors": "Mehta, A.; Chavas, J.-P.", "year": 2008, "publisher": "Journal of Development Economics 85(1–2), 282–311", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v85y2008i1-2p282-311.html", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "Peer-reviewed; abstract read on RePEc.", "quote": "In net, the ICA created a price cycle that does not exist in non-ICA periods.", "quotes": [], "abstractOnly": true, "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s10", "title": "Coffee Markets: New Paradigms in Global Supply and Demand (Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 3)", "authors": "Lewin, B.; Giovannucci, D.; Varangis, P.", "year": 2004, "publisher": "World Bank, Washington, DC", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/899311468167958765/pdf/283000REVISED0Coffee1Markets01PUBLIC1.pdf", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "World Bank discussion paper; the views are the authors’.", "quote": "Since 1970, prices have averaged a 3 percent per year price decline for arabica coffees and a 5 percent decline for robusta.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s11", "title": "Monthly Coffee Market Report – December 2011", "year": 2011, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization", "url": "https://ico.org/documents/cmr-1211-e.pdf", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "ICO statistics (Table 1, monthly and annual composite averages).", "quote": "The annual average of the ICO composite indicator price was 210.39 US cents/lb in 2011 compared with 147.24 in 2010.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s12", "title": "Coffee Market Report – April 2019", "year": 2019, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization", "url": "https://www.ico.org/documents/cy2018-19/cmr-0419-e.pdf", "tier": "A/B", "tierNote": "A for the ICO statistics; B for the market commentary.", "quote": "This represents the lowest monthly average composite indicator since July 2006 when it reached 88.57 US cents/lb.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s13", "title": "Coffee Market Report – November 2024", "year": 2024, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization", "url": "https://ico.org/documents/cy2024-25/cmr-1124-e.pdf", "tier": "A/B", "tierNote": "A for the ICO statistics; B for the market commentary.", "quote": "The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 270.72 US cents/lb in November, an 8.0% increase from October 2024.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s14", "title": "Coffee Market Report – February 2025", "year": 2025, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization", "url": "https://ico.org/documents/cy2024-25/cmr-0225-e.pdf", "tier": "A/B", "tierNote": "A for the ICO statistics; B for the market commentary.", "quote": "The I-CIP reached new highs in February 2025 and achieved the highest monthly average on record,", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s15", "title": "Coffee Market Report – February 2026", "year": 2026, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization", "url": "https://ico.org/documents/cy2025-26/cmr-0226-e.pdf", "tier": "A/B", "tierNote": "A for the ICO statistics (Table 1, March 2025 to February 2026); B for the market commentary.", "quote": "The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 267.57 US cents/lb in February 2026, a 9.9% decrease from January 2026.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s16", "title": "Beverage prices soften but risks are brewing", "authors": "Baffes, J.; Temaj, K.", "year": 2025, "publisher": "World Bank Data Blog, 20 May 2025", "url": "https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/beverage-prices-soften-but-risks-are-brewing", "tier": "B", "tierNote": "Blog of World Bank commodity economists; not a formal publication.", "quote": "Coffee softened slightly in April after hitting record nominal highs.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s17", "title": "ICO Indicator Prices – September 2026 (I-CIP)", "year": 2026, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization", "url": "https://ico.org/documents/prices/I-CIP_09.2026.pdf", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "ICO statistics; daily values with the monthly average, high and low, in US cents per lb. Cited as in How a coffee price is made.", "quote": "1st October 2024, the share of markets and group weightings for coffee years 2024/25 and 2025/26 can be found here", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z" } ], "markdown": "## Which price is charted\n\nThere is no single “coffee price”. For long series, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both publish a monthly arabica price.1,2 The World Bank names its source: the International Coffee Organization (ICO) indicator price for other mild arabicas.3 It is averaged over the New York and Bremen/Hamburg markets, ex-dock.3\n\nThe charts on this page use two datasets, one per chart. From 1970 to 1991 they show the World Bank series; from 1992 they show the IMF series.1,2 Both are monthly averages in nominal US dollars: the money of each month, not adjusted for inflation.1,2 We give them in US cents per pound (lb); 1 lb is 0.4535924 kg.5\n\nA dollar of 1977 bought far more than a dollar of 2026: US consumer prices rose more than fivefold in between.4 So each chart also shows a real, inflation-adjusted price. We divide each month’s price by the United States consumer price index of that month and express it in September 2026 dollars (our calculation).4 The real line answers a different question: what the price was worth in today’s money.\n\n## Frost and quotas, 1970–1991\n\nFrom the 1960s until 1989 the price moved inside a system of export quotas set under the International Coffee Agreements.7,8 How the agreements worked is explained in The International Coffee Agreements.\n\nIn 1975 a severe frost damaged the Brazilian crop.6,7 According to a 1985 World Bank profile, it ended a period of high stocks and low real prices.6 Arabica rose from 55.8 US cents per lb in June 1975 to 83.5 cents in August, and kept rising to 317.5 cents in April 1977.2 In today’s money, that April 1977 price was about 1,780 cents per lb (our calculation).2,4\n\n
\n
\n
    \n
  1. July 1975. Arabica starts to rise after the 1975 frost in Brazil; up by half from June to August.2,6,7
    2. \n
  2. April 1977. Peak: 317.5 US cents per lb nominal, ≈1,783 in September 2026 dollars.2,4
    3. \n
  3. March 1986. Peak of the spike after damage to the 1985 Brazilian crop; export quotas formally suspended in February 1986.2,6,7
    4. \n
  4. July 1989. Export quotas end; arabica falls about 45% from June to October.2,7,8
    5. \n
\n
Monthly arabica price, January 1970 to December 1991: World Bank series (ICO other mild arabicas), solid line nominal, dashed line in September 2026 dollars deflated with the US consumer price index. USD per kg converted to US cents per lb; conversion and deflation are our calculation.2,4,5
\n
\n\nDamage to the Brazilian crop in 1985 sent prices up again, and the ICO decided to suspend export quotas.6 The quotas were formally suspended in February 1986 and reinstated in 1987.7 Monthly arabica rose to 237.7 cents in January 1986 and peaked at 239.5 cents in March.2\n\nThe quota system broke down in July 1989.7,8 Arabica fell from 125.2 cents in June 1989 to 68.5 cents in October, a drop of about 45% (our calculation).2 The ICO describes a price collapse of some 50% across all groups of coffee, followed by several years of very low prices.7\n\n## A free market, 1992–2026\n\nBy 2004, supply was no longer managed by international agreements.10 Prices stayed low until two frosts hit Brazil in 1994.7,10 According to a 2004 World Bank study, Brazil lost about 13 million bags of production in 1994, which pushed prices to a very high level.10 Arabica rose from 117.2 cents in May 1994 to 218.7 cents in September.1\n\n
\n
\n
    \n
  1. July 1994. After the 1994 frosts in Brazil, arabica rises from 133 to 201 cents in one month.1,7,10
    2. \n
  2. August 2002. Crisis low: 54.36 US cents per lb, the lowest real price in the series.1,4
    3. \n
  3. April 2011. High: 300.48 cents nominal, ≈450 in September 2026 dollars.1,4
    4. \n
  4. May 2019. Low after two seasons of surplus and a record Brazilian crop: 120.55 cents.1,12
    5. \n
  5. February 2025. 409.52 cents; record monthly average of the ICO composite indicator.1,14
    6. \n
  6. November 2025. 409.68 cents, the highest nominal month in this series.1
    7. \n
\n
Monthly arabica price, January 1992 to September 2026: IMF series (other mild arabica), solid line nominal, dashed line in September 2026 dollars deflated with the US consumer price index (our calculation; no index value for October 2025). Vertical scale differs from the chart above.1,4
\n
\n\nBy the end of 2000 prices had fallen below the levels of 1989–1993.7 This period became known as the coffee crisis.7 Arabica reached 54.36 cents in August 2002.1 The 2004 World Bank study describes these prices as 100-year lows in real terms.10\n\nPrices rose in 2010 and 2011. The ICO composite indicator averaged 210.39 cents in 2011, against 147.24 in 2010.11 Its highest month in 2011 was April, at 231.24 cents; other mild arabica reached 300.48 cents that month.1,11\n\nIn April 2019 the ICO composite fell to 94.42 cents, its lowest monthly average since July 2006.12 From 2024 prices rose to new records. In February 2025 the ICO composite averaged 354.32 cents, the highest monthly average on record in nominal terms.14 In September 2026 other mild arabica averaged 330.12 cents and the ICO composite 262.18 cents.1,17\n\n## Nominal records and real records\n\nThe two lines tell different stories. In nominal terms the highs of 2025 are the highest monthly averages on record.1,14,16 In real terms they are not. In September 2026 dollars, the April 1977 peak was about 1,783 cents per lb, four times the February 2025 price of ≈432 cents (our calculation).1,2,4 Even the 1994, 1997 and 2011 peaks were higher in real terms than 2025 (our calculation).1,4\n\nThe long trend points down. According to the 2004 World Bank study, arabica prices declined by an average of 3% a year from 1970, and robusta prices by 5%.10 In September 2026 dollars, real arabica averaged about 558 cents per lb from January 1970 to June 1989. From 1992 to 2026 it averaged about 236 cents (our calculation).1,2,4 A coffee science textbook chapter states that real prices in the 1990s and 2000s were lower than in the 1980s, before the agreements collapsed.8\n\n## What moved the price\n\nThe sources name a few recurring drivers. Weather in Brazil is the most visible: the frosts of 1975 and 1994 and the crop damage of 1985 each sent prices up.6,7,10 According to the 2004 World Bank study, a price rise from frost or drought in Brazil starts a cycle: new planting, more supply a few years later, then lower prices.10\n\nThe rules of the market matter too. A 2008 econometric study found that the agreements created a price cycle that does not exist in periods without them.9 After 1989, Brazil replanted in areas with less frost risk, and Brazil and Vietnam raised both quantity and quality.10 Stocks and exchange rates also play a part; how they enter a single price is explained in How a coffee price is made.\n\nThese are past prices. Coffearium does not forecast prices and gives no trading advice.\n\n\n\n## Reference values: price episodes\n\n| Episode | Month | Nominal (US cents per lb) | Real, Sep 2026 dollars (our calculation) | Driver named by the sources |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Frost in Brazil | Jul 1975 (Aug 1975: 83.5) | 65.82 | ≈409 (Aug: ≈518)2,4 | Severe frost damaging the Brazilian crop6,7 |\n| Post-frost peak | Apr 1977 | 317.52 | ≈1,7832,4 | Effects of the 1975 frost6,7 |\n| Spike | Mar 1986 | 239.52 | ≈7422,4 | Damage to the 1985 Brazilian crop; quotas suspended February 19866,7 |\n| End of quotas | Jun → Oct 1989 | 125.2 → 68.52 | ≈340 → ≈1842,4 | Breakdown of the quota system, July 19897,8 |\n| Frosts in Brazil | May → Sep 1994 | 117.2 → 218.71 | ≈268 → ≈4931,4 | Two frosts and a drought; ≈13 million bags lost10 |\n| Coffee crisis low | Aug 2002 | 54.361 | ≈1011,4 | Supply growth after 1989 in Brazil and Vietnam; end of managed supply10 |\n| High | Apr 2011 | 300.48; ICO composite 231.241,11 | ≈4501,4 | Not analysed in the sources consulted for this entry |\n| Low | May 2019 | 120.55; ICO composite in Apr 2019: 94.421,12 | ≈1591,4 | Second season of surplus, record Brazilian crop, weak Brazilian real12 |\n| Record (ICO composite) | Feb 2025 | 409.52; ICO composite 354.321,14 | ≈4321,4 | Effects of the 2021–22 shortfall and steady demand growth16 |\n| Nominal high (IMF series) | Nov 2025 | 409.681 | ≈4261,4 | – |\n\nArabica columns: World Bank series (USD per kg converted at 1 lb = 0.4535924 kg) to 1991, IMF series from 1992.1,2,5 Real values are the nominal price × CPI-U of September 2026 ÷ CPI-U of the month, rounded (our calculation).4 ICO composite values are the ICO’s monthly averages, which blend arabica and robusta groups.17\n\n## Method and caveats\n\n**Datasets.** The World Bank describes its arabica price as the ICO indicator for other mild arabicas, averaged over New York and Bremen/Hamburg, ex-dock.3 The IMF series says only that it is a benchmark price, a period average in nominal US dollars.1 In most months checked, the two series and the ICO agree closely. In January 1992 the World Bank gives 1.62 USD per kg (73.5 cents per lb, our conversion) and the IMF 73.03 cents.1,2 In February 2025 the IMF gives 409.52 cents and the ICO Other Milds group 409.48.1,14 The largest gap found is July 2025: 316.73 cents (IMF) against 325.50 (ICO).1,15 In September 2026 the World Bank gives 7.26 USD per kg (329.3 cents, our conversion), the IMF 330.12.1,3 We still keep them in separate charts, one dataset each.\n\n**Annual averages.** The World Bank gives annual arabica averages of 4.54 USD per kg in 2023, 5.62 in 2024 and 8.47 in 2025; robusta averaged 2.63, 4.41 and 4.86.3 In cents per lb, 2025 arabica is about 384 (our conversion).3,5 The data tables under the charts give annual averages of the monthly values (our calculation).\n\n**Deflator.** We use the US consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U), all items, not seasonally adjusted.4 It measures prices paid by US households, not producers’ costs. The World Bank study’s long-run chart is deflated with a different index, labelled “MUV” (manufactures unit value).10 Real values therefore depend on the index chosen, and our numbers are not directly comparable with the World Bank’s. A producer’s income also depends on the exchange rate of the local currency, which neither index captures.\n\n**Coffee year.** The ICO publishes its group weightings for each coffee year (October to September).17 The monthly series here are calendar months; annual averages in the tables are calendar years. Crop year and coffee year explains the difference.\n\n**The quota era in brief.** In a real-price analysis of Santos 4 coffee (not the series charted here), the ICO describes the quota years 1963–1989 as averaging some 185 cents in real terms.7 It gives similar averages for 1894–1962 and 1990–2013: 125 and 130 cents per lb in 1990 terms.7 In a 2008 study using a price vector autoregression, the agreements decoupled Brazilian farm prices from world prices in the short run, but supported supply response in the long run.9 The same study links low prices after the collapse to supply lags and a shift in the composition of coffee demand.9 The agreements themselves are covered in The International Coffee Agreements.\n\n## The crisis lows and the 2019 low\n\nAccording to the ICO, the end of the quotas brought several years of very low prices.7 New plantings then again created an imbalance between supply and demand.7 The 2004 World Bank study names lasting changes in supply: Brazilian replanting in areas with low frost risk, mechanisation, currency depreciation, and more and better coffee from Brazil and Vietnam.10 At the market’s low point, total availability was higher than at any previous time.10\n\nThe 2019 low had a similar shape on a smaller scale. According to the ICO’s April 2019 report, market fundamentals were one of the main drivers. It names a second consecutive season of surplus, 8.35 million bags in total, and a record Brazilian harvest of 62.5 million bags in the crop year March 2018 to April 2019.12 Brazilian exports were encouraged by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar.12\n\nThe series also shows a short spike in May 1997, to 265.61 cents.1 No source consulted for this entry explains it, and none analyses the causes of the 2011 high.\n\n## The 2024–2025 rally\n\nThe ICO composite reached 270.72 cents in November 2024, an 8.0% rise from October.13 The ICO’s November report names a lower Brazilian crop forecast, a delayed Vietnamese harvest, shipping delays at Santos, disruption in the Red Sea and the Panama Canal, and uncertainty over the EU deforestation regulation (EUDR).13\n\nIn February 2025 the ICO composite averaged 354.32 cents, the highest monthly average on record, with daily values between 337.54 and 375.00 cents.14 Colombian Milds and Other Milds averaged 410.64 and 409.48 cents, Brazilian Naturals 401.10 and Robustas 263.08.14 World Bank economists wrote in May 2025 that arabica reached USD 9 per kg in February–March and that coffee had hit record nominal highs.16 They name the lingering effects of the 2021–22 production shortfall and steady demand growth as the reason prices stayed high.16\n\nPrices then eased. In February 2026 the ICO composite averaged 267.57 cents, 9.9% below January.15 The ICO names a reassessment of the supply balance, including a forecast record Brazilian crop.15 In the ICO’s table for March 2025 to February 2026, no month is higher than March 2025 at 347.85 cents.15\n\n## Open questions\n\n- **Real record of 2025.** Whether the 2025 highs are a real-terms record depends on the deflator and the start year. With the US consumer price index from 1970 they are not (our calculation); no source consulted for this entry gives an official real series to 2026.1,2,4\n- **Causes of the 2011 high and the 1997 spike.** The sources consulted here give the levels but do not analyse the causes.\n- **Robusta history.** This entry charts arabica only; a long monthly robusta series was not charted. The World Bank gives a faster long-run decline for robusta than for arabica.10\n- **Producer prices.** The charts show export-market prices in US dollars. How much of each swing reached producers in local currency is not measured here.\n\n## Key studies\n\n
\n

Mehta and Chavas, 2008 – Coffee price dynamics and the agreements. The authors modelled coffee prices with a semi-structural vector autoregression, letting the International Coffee Agreement change how supply responds to price. They found that the agreement created a price cycle absent in periods without it, and link the low prices after its collapse to supply lags and a shift in demand.

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Journal of Development Economics 85(1–2), 282–311 · ideas.repec.org

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Lewin, Giovannucci and Varangis, 2004 – Coffee markets after the crisis. A World Bank review of the price collapse after 1989. It describes the frost-driven price cycle, the loss of about 13 million bags in Brazil in 1994, and the structural growth of supply in Brazil and Vietnam that kept prices low.

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World Bank, Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 3 · documents1.worldbank.org

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Dubois, 2013 – Fifty years of the ICO. The ICO’s own history of its agreements, from the quota system to the free market. It describes the frosts, the suspension of quotas in the 1980s and their end in July 1989, and compares average real prices in the quota and free-market periods.

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International Coffee Organization, London · ico.org

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