{ "id": "the-coffee-belt", "url": "https://coffearium.org/entries/the-coffee-belt/", "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "title": "The coffee belt", "summary": "The band around the equator where nearly all coffee is grown, why frost, heat and rainfall keep it there, which countries produce most, which farms lie at its edges, and how climate change is expected to shift it.", "domain": "farm-management", "kind": "Concept", "stage": "farm", "topics": [ "sustainability" ], "topicSections": { "sustainability": { "id": "climate-change-and-the-belt", "label": "Climate change and the belt" } }, "lang": "en", "status": "verified", "reviewer": "Coffearium verification pass", "lastVerified": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z", "updated": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z", "added": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z", "brief": [ "A 2006 review places coffee in the inter-tropical zone, from 20–25°N in Hawaii to 24°S in Brazil, in some 80 countries.1", "In that review, arabica grows best at high altitude and robusta from sea level to 800 m. Further from the equator, coffee grows lower, unless frost limits it.1", "In 2025/26, Brazil produced 63.0 and Vietnam 31.7 of the world’s 178.8 million 60-kg bags, by the count of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).2", "Nepal grows arabica around 28°N, outside the limits the 2006 review gives.10,1", "A 2015 study projects that climate change will cut the area suitable for coffee by about 50%, hitting low latitudes and altitudes hardest.6" ], "quickFacts": [ { "label": "Limits (2006 review)", "value": "20–25°N (Hawaii) to 24°S (Brazil)" }, { "label": "Producing countries", "value": "Some 80 (2006 review); 78 with a 2024 value in FAOSTAT" }, { "label": "World production", "value": "178.8 million 60-kg bags (USDA, 2025/26)" }, { "label": "Two largest producers", "value": "Brazil 35.2%, Vietnam 17.7% (2025/26, our calculation)" }, { "label": "By region (ICO, coffee year 2024)", "value": "South America 48.9%, Asia and Oceania 28.0%, Africa 12.8%, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean 10.3%" }, { "label": "Projected change", "value": "About half of suitable area lost (2015 study)" } ], "aka": [ "Bean belt", "Coffee-growing belt" ], "linkTerms": [ "coffee belt", "bean belt", "coffee-growing belt", "inter-tropical zone" ], "related": [ "site-selection-and-climate", "coffea-arabica", "coffea-canephora", "shade-and-agroforestry", "harvest-calendars", "soils-for-coffee", "coffee-yields", "irrigation", "carbon-footprint-of-coffee", "coffee-production-by-country", "coffee-consumption-by-country" ], "contested": [ "Room to move away from the equator: a 2015 study of arabica zones projects new suitable land south of the Brazilian coffee region but little expansion beyond the present latitudinal limits5; a 2022 global study expects high-latitude and high-altitude areas to gain from rising minimum temperatures.8 The studies used different models, scenarios and periods." ], "corrections": [ { "date": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z", "change": "ICO regional shares: the fourth region is now named as in ICO Table 3 (Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean) in the quick facts, and the 2024 production values are no longer called preliminary.", "reason": "The quick fact left out the Caribbean, and Table 3 marks only its balance row as preliminary." } ], "sources": [ { "id": "s1", "title": "Impacts of drought and temperature stress on coffee physiology and production: a review", "authors": "DaMatta, F. M.; Ramalho, J. D. C.", "year": 2006, "publisher": "Brazilian Journal of Plant Physiology 18(1), 55–81", "url": "https://www.scielo.br/j/bjpp/a/bDfpJwLr4xLcznSwy4b9zkf/?lang=en", "doi": "10.1590/S1677-04202006000100006", "tier": "A", "quote": "Coffee is currently grown in some 80 countries in four continents.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s2", "title": "Coffee: World Markets and Trade (July 2026)", "authors": "USDA Foreign Agricultural Service", "year": 2026, "publisher": "United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/2026/07/coffee.pdf", "tier": "A", "quote": "Vietnam production is forecast to increase 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million due to expanding area and higher yields.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s3", "title": "Coffee Market Report – February 2026", "authors": "International Coffee Organization", "year": 2026, "publisher": "International Coffee Organization (ICO)", "url": "https://ico.org/documents/cy2025-26/cmr-0226-e.pdf", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "A for its statistics (Table 3, World supply/demand balance, production for the coffee year commencing 2024).", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s4", "title": "FAOSTAT: Crops and livestock products (item “Coffee, green”, element “Production”, 2024)", "authors": "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations", "year": 2026, "publisher": "FAO, licence CC BY 4.0", "url": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL", "tier": "A", "tierNote": "Values from the FAOSTAT extract of 11 Oct 2026 used by the site’s world coffee map, kept in tools/figures/data/the-coffee-belt-production-faostat-2024.json; each value carries FAO’s flag (official, estimated, imputed, external). Values cross-checked on 23 Oct 2026 against the FAOSTAT series republished by Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coffee-bean-production, data updated 25 Feb 2026): 76 of 78 countries match to within 0.01 t, Cook Islands (0.37 t) matches in the full series, French Polynesia (22 t) was not listed there. Flags were not re-checked.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s5", "title": "Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change", "authors": "Bunn, C.; Läderach, P.; Pérez Jimenez, J. G.; Montagnon, C.; Schilling, T.", "year": 2015, "publisher": "PLoS ONE 10(10), e0140490", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4624759", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0140490", "tier": "A", "quote": "Under current conditions, arabica coffee grows on 7.2% of the total pixels in the latitudinal belt 30°N– 33°S.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s6", "title": "A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee", "authors": "Bunn, C.; Läderach, P.; Ovalle Rivera, O.; Kirschke, D.", "year": 2015, "publisher": "Climatic Change 129(1), 89–101", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v129y2015i1p89-101.html", "doi": "10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x", "tier": "A", "quote": "Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes.", "quotes": [], "abstractOnly": true, "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s7", "title": "Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change", "authors": "Kath, J.; Craparo, A.; Fong, Y.; Byrareddy, V.; Davis, A. P.; et al.", "year": 2022, "publisher": "Nature Food 3, 871–880", "url": "https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q7w80/vapour-pressure-deficit-determines-critical-thresholds-for-global-coffee-production-under-climate-change", "doi": "10.1038/s43016-022-00614-8", "tier": "A", "quote": "At 2.9 °C, countries making up 90% of global supply are more likely than not to exceed the VPD threshold.", "quotes": [], "abstractOnly": true, "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s8", "title": "Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change", "authors": "Grüter, R.; Trachsel, T.; Laube, P.; Jaisli, I.", "year": 2022, "publisher": "PLoS ONE 17(1), e0261976", "url": "https://doaj.org/article/012401b6f96a47b0a536a8ff14b0ff51", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0261976", "tier": "A", "quote": "At high latitudes and high altitudes, however, they may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures.", "quotes": [], "abstractOnly": true, "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s9", "title": "MaxEnt and Marxan modeling to predict the potential habitat and priority planting areas of Coffea arabica in Yunnan, China under climate change scenario", "authors": "Li, X.; Wang, Z.; Wang, S.; Qian, Z.", "year": 2024, "publisher": "Frontiers in Plant Science 15", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1471653/pdf", "doi": "10.3389/fpls.2024.1471653", "tier": "A", "quote": "The suitable areas were mainly concentrated in western and southern Yunnan.", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s10", "title": "Trade-off between yield and carbon storage in Nepali coffee agroforestry", "authors": "Lotz, S.; Pandit, B. H.; Schmidt, H.-P.; et al.; Hölscher, D.", "year": 2026, "publisher": "Agroforestry Systems 100, article 49", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10457-026-01432-8", "doi": "10.1007/s10457-026-01432-8", "tier": "A", "quote": "Commercial coffee (C. arabica) production started in the 1990s in Nepal", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" }, { "id": "s11", "title": "A double shot for Australia’s emerging coffee-growing industry", "authors": "Southern Cross University", "year": 2023, "publisher": "Southern Cross University, news, 5 December 2023", "url": "https://www.scu.edu.au/news/2023/coffee-wheel-and-terroir/", "tier": "B", "tierNote": "University news page on its own research project; used only for where coffee is grown in Australia, without numbers.", "quote": "the few pockets where we do grow coffee is here in Northern New South Wales", "quotes": [], "accessed": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z" } ], "markdown": "## What the coffee belt is\n\nThe coffee belt is an informal name for the band around the equator where coffee is grown. A 2006 review of coffee physiology describes the crop as confined to the inter-tropical zone. It runs from 20–25°N in Hawaii down to 24°S in Brazil.1 According to the same review, coffee is grown in some 80 countries on four continents.1\n\nThe inter-tropical zone is the band between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. A 2015 study that modelled where arabica can grow used a wider belt, from 30°N to 33°S. Under the climate of 1950–2000, arabica grew on 7.2% of the land in that belt.5\n\nThe belt is a description of where coffee grows, not a fixed line. Inside it, altitude, rainfall and soil decide which land suits coffee. Those limits are covered in Site selection and climate.\n\n## Why coffee stays near the tropics\n\nThe 2006 review names temperature and humidity as the main reasons for the crop’s limits.1 Frost is the hardest limit. It easily damages the coffee tree and can kill it.1 According to the review, this happens from time to time in southern Brazil. Closer to the equator, it happens at altitudes of around 2,000 m and above.1\n\nHeight and distance from the equator work together. The review states that arabica coffee (*C. arabica*) grows best at higher altitudes, while robusta (*C. canephora*) can be grown from sea level to 800 m.1 Further from the equator, coffee can also be grown at lower altitudes, unless frost limits it.1 Temperature, rainfall and dry-season values for each species are given in Site selection and climate.\n\nThe two species also come from different places. Wild arabica is native to tropical forests in Ethiopia at 1,600–2,800 m, according to the 2006 review; other sources give lower altitudes (see Coffea arabica).1 *C. canephora* comes from the lowland forests of the Congo River basin, which reach up to 1,200 m in Uganda.1\n\n## Who grows the coffee\n\nProduction is concentrated in a few countries. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) puts world production in 2025/26 at 178.8 million bags of 60 kg.2 Brazil produced 63.0 million bags and Vietnam 31.7 million. Together that is 53.0% of the world total (our calculation).2 The five largest producers, with Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia, made up 73.3% (our calculation).2\n\n
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Coffee production of the 12 largest producers in marketing year 2025/26, in million 60-kg bags, with each country’s share of the world total of 178.8 million bags (shares: our calculation). Data: USDA, Coffee: World Markets and Trade, July 2026.2
\n
\n\nThe International Coffee Organization (ICO) groups production by region. In the coffee year that began in 2024, South America produced 86.8 million bags of a world total of 177.5 million.3 That is 48.9% (our calculation). Asia and Oceania followed with 28.0%, Africa with 12.8%, and Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean with 10.3% (our calculation).3\n\n## The belt on a map\n\nThe map shades each country by its green coffee production in 2024, as recorded by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).4 FAOSTAT, the FAO database, lists 78 countries and territories with production in that year (our count).4 On the map, almost all of them lie mainly between the tropics.\n\nA whole country is shaded even where coffee grows in only one region. In China, for example, Yunnan province holds over 98% of the country’s coffee area and production, according to a 2024 study.9\n\n
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    \n
  1. Hawaii, United States. The northern limit, 20–25°N, in a 2006 review.1
    2. \n
  2. Southern Brazil. The southern limit, 24°S, in the same review; frost strikes here from time to time.1
    3. \n
  3. Yunnan, China. Over 98% of China’s coffee area and production.9
    4. \n
  4. Mid-hills, Nepal. Commercial arabica at around 28°N, at 525–1,275 m in one study area.10
    5. \n
  5. Northern New South Wales, Australia. One of a few pockets of coffee growing in Australia.11
    6. \n
  6. South-western Ethiopia. Native forests of arabica, at 1,600–2,800 m in a 2006 review.1
    7. \n
  7. Congo River basin. Native lowland forests of robusta.1
    8. \n
\n
Green coffee production by country in 2024, in four classes from darkest to lightest: 1 million t or more, 100,000–999,999 t, 10,000–99,999 t and below 10,000 t; dashed lines mark the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. Hatched countries have a value imputed by FAO rather than reported. Whole countries are shaded even where coffee grows in one region only. Land outlines: Natural Earth.4,1,9,10,11
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\n\n## At the edges of the belt\n\nSome coffee regions lie at or beyond the limits the 2006 review gives.\n\n- **Hawaii and southern Brazil.** They mark the review’s northern and southern limits.1 In southern Brazil, frost is the risk.1\n- **Yunnan, China.** In a 2024 modelling study, arabica land in Yunnan was most suitable at around 1,200 m, within about 680–1,750 m.9 The minimum temperature of the coldest month contributed most to the model.9\n- **Nepal.** Commercial arabica production began in the 1990s.10 A 2026 study worked on farms in the mid-hills, around 28°N, at 525–1,275 m.10 That is further north than the review’s limit.1\n- **Australia.** According to Southern Cross University, coffee grows in a few pockets: northern New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland and the Atherton Tablelands in northern Queensland.11\n\n\n\n## Latitude, altitude and the cold limit\n\nThe 2006 review ties the latitudinal limits to ecological factors of temperature and humidity.1 It describes two places where frost limits coffee: southern Brazil, and altitudes around 2,000 m and above closer to the equator.1 Even occasional frost may strongly limit the economic success of the crop.1 How temperature falls with altitude in one coffee zone is set out in Site selection and climate.\n\nThe outlier regions fit the review’s statement that coffee grows lower further from the equator.1 The Nepali study plots lay at around 28°N and 525–1,275 m.10 Native arabica in Ethiopia grows at 1,600–2,800 m, according to the review.1 In Nepal, suboptimal climate and a lack of cultivation expertise were identified as the main reasons for low yields.10\n\nIn the Yunnan study, the minimum temperature of the coldest month was the largest of the top five factors in the model. The others were altitude, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, slope and aluminium saturation of the soil.9 The authors note that temperatures below 5 °C in the coldest months can cause leaf damage and stop growth.9 In this model, cold rather than heat was the main limit.\n\n## Production data and how they differ\n\nThree official datasets count coffee production, and they do not measure the same thing.\n\n| Dataset | Unit | Year | World total | Brazil | Source |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service | 60-kg bags | Marketing year 2025/26 (estimate) | 178.8 million | 63.0 million (35.2%, our calculation) | USDA2 |\n| ICO, Table 3 | 60-kg bags | Coffee year commencing 2024 | 177.5 million | Not in the table (South America: 86.8 million) | ICO3 |\n| FAOSTAT | Tonnes of green coffee | Calendar year 2024 | 11.13 million t (sum of 78 countries, our calculation) | 3.39 million t (30.4%, our calculation) | FAO4 |\n\nFor comparison, 178.8 million bags of 60 kg equal 10.73 million t (our calculation).2 The datasets differ in year definition and in how values are collected. FAOSTAT marks each value with a flag. Its 2024 value for the Central African Republic, 324,923 t, is imputed (flag I); USDA does not list that country separately.4,2 The map hatches imputed values for this reason.\n\nFor 2026/27, USDA forecasts a record world crop of 189.7 million bags, with Vietnam at a record 32.5 million.2 Forecasts change between reports; the chart uses the 2025/26 estimate. The split of each country’s crop between arabica and robusta is shown in the world map of coffee tool in Site selection and climate.\n\n## Climate change and the belt\n\nGlobal modelling studies agree that land suited to coffee will shrink, and disagree on how far it can move away from the equator.\n\n- **Both species, 2015.** Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50% across emission scenarios.6 Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes; the abstract names Brazil and Vietnam among the regions with large losses.6\n- **Arabica zones, 2015.** The share of suitable land in the 30°N–33°S belt halves from 7.2% to 3.6% by the 2050s.5 Zones suited to arabica move upwards by about 500 m.5 About half of the new area lies at higher elevations within existing coffee regions.5 Substantial areas become suitable south of the Brazilian coffee region, but the authors expect little expansion beyond the present latitudinal limits.5\n- **Coffee, cashew and avocado, 2022.** Coffee was the most vulnerable of the three crops. High-latitude and high-altitude areas may gain from rising minimum temperatures.8\n- **Vapour pressure deficit, 2022.** At 2.9 °C of global warming, countries making up 90% of global supply are more likely than not to exceed the threshold above which arabica yields fall rapidly.7 The threshold itself is explained in Site selection and climate.\n- **Yunnan, 2024.** Under future scenarios, suitable arabica habitat in Yunnan contracted most under SSP3-7.0; under SSP5-8.5 expansion was highest, peaking in 2040–2060.9\n\nThese are projections from models, not forecasts by Coffearium. For the edges of the belt, the studies point in two directions: warmer winters may open land at higher latitudes and altitudes, while temperature variability may still hold the southern limit in Brazil (see Contested).5,8\n\n## Reference values\n\n| Parameter | Value | Source |\n|---|---|---|\n| Latitudinal limits | 20–25°N (Hawaii) to 24°S (Brazil) | DaMatta & Ramalho1 |\n| Countries growing coffee | Some 80, on four continents (2006); 78 with a 2024 value in FAOSTAT | DaMatta & Ramalho1, FAO4 |\n| Frost near the equator | At altitudes around 2,000 m and above | DaMatta & Ramalho1 |\n| Robusta altitude | Sea level to 800 m | DaMatta & Ramalho1 |\n| Arabica land in 30°N–33°S belt | 7.2% (1950–2000 climate) → 3.6% (2050s) | Bunn et al. 20155 |\n| World production | 178.8 million 60-kg bags (2025/26); 189.7 million forecast (2026/27) | USDA2 |\n| Share of Brazil and Vietnam | 35.2% and 17.7% (2025/26, our calculation) | USDA2 |\n| Regional shares | South America 48.9%, Asia and Oceania 28.0%, Africa 12.8%, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean 10.3% (coffee year 2024, our calculation) | ICO3 |\n| Nepal study area | ≈28°N, 525–1,275 m | Lotz et al. 202610 |\n| Yunnan, most suitable altitude | ≈1,200 m (≈680–1,750 m) | Li et al. 20249 |\n| Projected loss of suitable area | About 50% across emission scenarios | Bunn et al. 20156 |\n\n## Open questions\n\n- **Production at the margins.** No source consulted for this entry gives production figures for Nepal, Yunnan or Australia that would show how much coffee comes from outside the 2006 limits.\n- **Southern limit in Brazil.** Whether warmer winters will move coffee south of the present Brazilian region is not settled by the sources consulted here (see Contested).5,8\n- **Robusta at the edges.** The sources consulted here describe the edges of the belt mainly for arabica; no study consulted for this entry mapped the cold limit of robusta by latitude.\n- **Comparable statistics.** FAOSTAT, USDA and ICO use different years, units and collection methods; no source consulted here reconciles them country by country.\n\n## Key studies\n\n
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Bunn et al., 2015 – A bitter cup. Modelled where arabica and robusta can grow now and under future climates, using machine learning on coffee production locations. Suitable area falls by about half across emission scenarios, with the largest losses at low latitudes and low altitudes.

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Climatic Change 129(1), 89–101 · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x

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Bunn et al., 2015 – Agro-ecological zones for arabica. Grouped about 125,000 arabica locations into five climate zones and projected them to the 2050s. Suitable land in the 30°N–33°S belt halves and moves upslope; little of it moves beyond today’s latitudinal limits.

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PLoS ONE 10(10), e0140490 · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140490

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Kath et al., 2022 – Vapour pressure deficit thresholds. Compared temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and vapour pressure deficit as drivers of global arabica productivity. Found a threshold in vapour pressure deficit during fruit development. At 2.9 °C of warming, countries making up 90% of supply are more likely than not to cross it.

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Nature Food 3, 871–880 · doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00614-8

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Li et al., 2024 – Arabica habitat in Yunnan. Modelled suitable arabica land in China’s main coffee province under current and future climates. The coldest-month minimum temperature contributed most, and suitable land was concentrated in western and southern Yunnan.

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Frontiers in Plant Science 15 · doi:10.3389/fpls.2024.1471653

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Lotz et al., 2026 – Coffee agroforestry in Nepal. Studied yield and carbon storage on arabica farms in the mid-hills of central and western Nepal, around 28°N. Gives a rare peer-reviewed description of coffee grown beyond the usual northern limit.

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Agroforestry Systems 100, 49 · doi:10.1007/s10457-026-01432-8

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" }